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11

Alpha Vase

4yo Gelding · 8-11

Clairefontaine · Cheval Percheron - Prix de Brocottes Stakes · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ La Teste De Buch 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12816/05C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 26/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 12526/06C5C5 @ Clairefontaine 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12515/08C5C5 @ Toulouse 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 12517/09C5C5 @ Marseille-borely 13/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m99y GS 12513/10C53 @ Clairefontaine 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1233/073projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Clairefontaine31st2nd−1
2025-10-13Marseille-borely?1st4th−3
2025-09-17Toulouse?1st4th−3
2025-08-15Clairefontaine?6th9th−3
2025-06-26La Teste De Buch?5th8th−3
2025-05-16La Teste De Buch?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0526/0615/0817/0913/103/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
26/06/20255th5/696%20%-0.76
15/08/20256th10/147%38%-0.10
17/09/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
13/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
03/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37