1
Tsaverna
3yo Filly · 9-2
Clairefontaine · Abeille Noire de Normandie - Prix des Gardenias Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 2 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |