11
Danzica Girl
4yo Filly · 9-2
Clairefontaine · Vaches Normandes - Prix des Sources Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/03/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |