14
Golden Vale
4yo Filly · 8-12
Clairefontaine · Vaches Normandes - Prix des Sources Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 31% | -0.24 |
| 10/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 45% | -0.10 |
| 19/12/2025 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/05/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 02/07/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |