Catherine's Gift

4yo Filly · 9-5

Clairefontaine · Ane du Cotentin - Prix des Enclos Handicap · 1m 3f 204y

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.6

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-21	Vichy	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-02	ParisLongchamp	3	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-06-23	Dieppe	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-05	Le Lion D'angers	4	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-15	Saint-Cloud	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-05-02	Angers	4	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 12

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength33%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/01/2026	5th	33/1	0%	64%	+0.64
08/04/2026	4th	8/1	58%	77%	+0.19
22/04/2026	7th	3/1	84%	50%	-0.34
02/05/2026	5th	18/1	5%	71%	+0.66
15/05/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	87%	+0.26
05/06/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	86%	-0.01
23/06/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	50%	-0.40
02/07/2026	9th	5/1	74%	43%	-0.31
21/07/2026	5th	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11