3
Cortella
4yo Filly · 9-5
Clairefontaine · Chevres des Fosses - Prix Air de Cour Handicap · 1m 208y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 62% | +0.56 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/06/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |