2
Alsaba
4yo Filly · 9-5
Clairefontaine · Racesdenormandie.com - Prix Robertet Handicap · 1m 208y
#15
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 30/04/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 41% | +0.04 |
| 09/11/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 12% | -0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |