15
Happy Saxon
5yo Filly · 8-7
Clairefontaine · Racesdenormandie.com - Prix Robertet Handicap · 1m 208y
#16
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Deauville | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 23/01/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |