2
Belladaball
5yo Mare · 11-7
Cork · www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength95%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: +4.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 14th | 5th | +7 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 1st | -8th | +7 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 20
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |