3
Easter Bonnet
5yo Mare · 11-7
Cork · www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | 1 | +7 | ||
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 20
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 12th | 5/4 | 93% | 48% | -0.46 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 84% | -0.05 |