8

Jolly D'olivate

7yo Mare · 11-7

Cork · www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f

#14

Rank

Odds

300/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is a winning pointer with a patchy overall record between the flags and well held in 2 maiden hurdles last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 16114/07C8C8 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 15323/07C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Wexford?9th9th0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0723/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 20
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength10%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20268th150/10%30%+0.30
23/07/20269th300/10%20%+0.20