9

Kaleo Ametsa

6yo Mare · 11-7

Cork · www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f

#17

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest maiden in bumpers and over hurdles and likely vulnerable again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 24/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m166y Sft 16124/11C?C0 @ Navan 07/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m Sft 1617/12C?C0 @ Punchestown 31/12/2024 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f79y Sft 16531/12C?C0 @ Limerick 10/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m3f60y Goo 16510/04C?C8 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f103y Goo 15929/12C8C8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR - · 2m159y Goo 15314/05C8C8 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f GF 15618/06C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-18Leopardstown?5th5th0
2026-05-14Clonmel?5th5th0
2025-12-29Leopardstown?9th9th0
2025-05-10Cork?0
2025-04-10Limerick?6th6th0
2024-12-31Punchestown?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1110/0418/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 20
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength43%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20246th28/10%38%+0.38
07/12/20244th100/10%50%+0.50
31/12/20249th150/10%47%+0.47
10/04/20256th50/10%62%+0.62
29/12/20259th100/10%20%+0.20
14/05/20265th7/163%76%+0.13
18/06/20265th66/10%71%+0.71