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6yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 116

Cork · John O'Flynn Motors 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Arrives on the back of career-best success in a mares handicap here (2½m) and no surprise to see cheekpieces added (hung left/hampered unlucky runner-up). Drop back in trip shouldn't inconvenience, however, more needed off 6 lb higher in open company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 15/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m159y Goo 15315/05C8C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 22 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 159C8 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 2m1f20y Goo 1614/08C8C8 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 109 · 2m1f87y Goo 153 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 109 parBHA110 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 110 · 2m4f40y Sft 157 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 110 par3/10110OR 1101 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 112 · 2m2f Hvy 148 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 112 parC8 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 111 · 2m50y Sft 162 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 111 par16/04C8OR 111BHA109 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 109 · 2m3f116y Goo 165 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 109 parBHA110 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 110 · 2m4f Goo 166 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 110 par10/07110OR 110projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10CorkBHA1101st1st0
2026-05-14ClonmelBHA1092nd2nd0
2026-04-16Limerick?5th5th0
2026-02-01Leopardstown111th11th0
2025-10-03Gowran ParkBHA1102nd2nd0
2025-08-29Down Royal?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0529/0816/0410/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20252nd7/163%90%+0.27
07/06/20254th7/282%86%+0.04
04/08/20253rd13/266%88%+0.22
29/08/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
03/10/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
01/02/202611th33/10%41%+0.41
16/04/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
14/05/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
10/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34