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5

Gino Bella

6yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 107

Cork · John O'Flynn Motors 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been largely on an upward curve before recording a breakthrough success in smooth fashion over C&D last time. A 7 lb rise could understate the dominance of that performance, and she's expected to run another big race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 07/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 1597/11C8C8 @ Naas 26/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m2f150y Sft 159BHA95 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 95 · 2m11y Goo 163 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 95 par27/1195OR 95BHA96 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 96 · 2m4f55y Sft 166 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Clonmel 08/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 96 · 2m202y Hvy 166 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 96 par8/0196OR 96BHA96 @ Cork 19/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 96 · 2m1f20y Yie 166 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 96 parBHA100 @ Clonmel 02/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 100 · 1m7f200y Sft 156 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 100 par2/04100OR 100BHA100 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 100 · 2m113y Goo 168 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 100 parBHA100 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR 100 · 2m1f60y Goo 168 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 100 par10/07100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10CorkBHA1001st1st0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA1003rd3rd0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA1000
2026-04-02ClonmelBHA1004th4th0
2026-03-19CorkBHA962nd2nd0
2026-01-08ClonmelBHA966th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1113/122/0410/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20243rd7/163%78%+0.15
26/01/20256th150/10%62%+0.62
27/11/20253rd8/158%83%+0.25
13/12/20252nd9/276%94%+0.18
08/01/20266th3/184%62%-0.23
19/03/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58
02/04/20264th9/488%75%-0.13
05/06/20263rd9/276%87%+0.10
10/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18