IvyArcIvyArc
9

Kilt

5yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 98

Cork · John O'Flynn Motors 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f

#10

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left previous efforts behind when winning 14-runner handicap at Wexford in May. Probably still too high in the weights on the back of that success, for all he wasn't suited by the run of the race at Killarney last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 1648/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 164C8 @ Cork 02/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m Yie 1612/11C8BHA92 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 92 · 2m11y Goo 160 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 92 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 90 · 2m Sft 146 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 90 par13/12C8OR 90BHA90 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 90 · 2m Yie 158 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 90 parBHA89 @ Wexford 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 89 · 2m1f Goo 157 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 89 par27/0589OR 89BHA98 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m1f55y Gd 166 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m1f Goo 154 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 98 par16/0798OR 98projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA985th5th0
2026-07-03WexfordBHA984th4th0
2026-05-27WexfordBHA891st1st0
2026-04-06CorkBHA9012th12th0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?7th7th0
2025-11-27ThurlesBHA929th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0927/1127/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/202510th150/10%40%+0.40
14/10/20256th50/10%62%+0.62
02/11/20258th125/10%46%+0.46
27/11/20259th33/10%33%+0.33
13/12/20257th66/10%65%+0.65
06/04/202612th16/116%42%+0.26
27/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
03/07/20264th10/147%77%+0.30
16/07/20265th15/261%71%+0.11