IvyArcIvyArc
8

Metamorpheus

7yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 103

Cork · John O'Flynn Motors 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoying a resurgence for current yard, running his best race in a long while when ½-length second in a much stronger handicap at Galway on Saturday. Looks well treated now and could take the beating if turned out quickly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA107 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 107 · 2m Sft 153 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 107 par14/12107OR 107BHA104 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 104 · 2m Hvy 161 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 104 parBHA102 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m35y Sft 164 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 102 par12/01102OR 102BHA99 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Yie 155 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 99 parBHA51 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 51 · 1m2f158y Sft 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 51 par3/0551OR 51BHA100 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 100 · 1m7f153y Goo 156 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 parBHA103 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 103 · 2m1f165y Gd 143 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 103 par14/06103OR 103BHA55 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m4f65y Gd 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 55 parBHA103 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 103 · 2m175y Goo 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 103 par1/08103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01GalwayBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA554th4th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA1034th4th0
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1002nd2nd0
2026-05-03SligoBHA511st1st0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1229/0314/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength65%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/20258th25/10%50%+0.50
27/12/202513th33/10%0%0.00
12/01/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
29/03/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
03/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
11/07/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
01/08/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58