IvyArcIvyArc
7

Highland Earl

6yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 85

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form and landed a gamble when winning 14-runner 17f handicap hurdle at Wexford last season by head from Prince of Air. Shaped as if needing returning from 12 months off at Roscommon 28 days ago and likely to be much closer to form this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 10/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f142y Gd 15910/06C?C8 @ Limerick 26/12/2024 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR - · 2m Yie 153C8 @ Thurles 15/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f136y Goo 16615/03C8BHA90 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 90 · 2m Goo 158 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 90 parBHA88 @ Cork 21/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 88 · 2m Yie 156 · below its mark21/04/2025 · OR 88 par21/0488OR 88BHA85 @ Sligo 13/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 85 · 2m1f180y Gd 153 · below its mark13/05/2025 · OR 85 parBHA82 @ Limerick 29/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 82 · 2m3f50y Goo 150 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 82 par29/0582OR 82BHA81 @ Wexford 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 81 · 2m1f55y Goo 149 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 81 parBHA85 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m7f204y Gd 153 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 85 par6/0785OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA858th8th0
2025-07-04WexfordBHA811st1st0
2025-05-29LimerickBHA825th5th0
2025-05-13SligoBHA857th7th0
2025-04-21CorkBHA887th7th0
2025-04-03NaasBHA9013th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/063/0429/056/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20248th50/10%36%+0.36
26/12/202414th150/10%24%+0.24
15/03/20256th200/10%67%+0.67
03/04/202513th18/15%29%+0.24
21/04/20257th80/10%65%+0.65
13/05/20257th16/116%50%+0.34
29/05/20255th16/116%73%+0.58
04/07/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
06/07/20268th14/126%53%+0.27