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14

Leo Messy

6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 80

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f

#11

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fared no better when well held in first-time tongue strap on handicap bow at Sligo last month. Market position (9/2) suggests that better may have been expected but drop back to 2m not an obvious call given the stamina in his pedigree.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 08/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 2m3f10y Sft 1668/03C8C8 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f185y Yie 15829/03C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 16th of 25 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 1664/04C8BHA81 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m4f116y Gd 149 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 81 par12/0781OR 81projClass-projected finish: 13th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12SligoBHA818th8th0
2026-04-04Fairyhouse?16th16th0
2026-03-29Downpatrick?10th10th0
2026-03-08Naas?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0329/034/0412/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/03/202610th150/10%31%+0.31
29/03/202610th125/10%25%+0.25
04/04/202616th400/10%38%+0.38
12/07/20268th9/276%46%-0.30