IvyArcIvyArc
19

Space Warrior

5yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 93

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On long losing run but turned in a decent effort when 6¾ lengths third of 16 to Le Diablo at Clonmel in April. Rather predictably failed to back that up last time, but obvious claims on that previous effort if able to bounce back. Engaged 13.50 Galway Sunday. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA106 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 106 · 2m20y Goo 147 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 106 par5/10106OR 106BHA104 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 104 · 2m46y Goo 159 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 104 parBHA102 @ Cork 02/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 102 · 2m Yie 151 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 102 par2/11102OR 102BHA100 @ Punchestown 13/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 100 · 1m7f187y Hvy 153 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 100 parBHA96 @ Cork 19/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 96 · 2m1f20y Yie 166 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 96 par19/0396OR 96BHA64 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m Sft 124 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 64 parBHA94 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 94 · 2m216y Yie 162 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 94 par14/0494OR 94BHA94 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 94 · 2m1f89y Gd 140 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 93 · 2m160y Goo 140 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 93 par2/0893OR 93projClass-projected finish: 11th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02GalwayBHA939th9th0
2026-07-21BallinrobeBHA949th9th0
2026-04-14ClonmelBHA943rd3rd0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA649th9th0
2026-03-19CorkBHA966th6th0
2025-12-31PunchestownBHA980

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1013/1114/042/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/10/20257th18/15%14%+0.09
14/10/20258th16/116%56%+0.40
02/11/20256th14/126%50%+0.24
13/11/20254th15/261%57%-0.03
19/03/20266th50/10%76%+0.76
28/03/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
14/04/20263rd8/158%87%+0.29
21/07/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
02/08/20269th25/10%50%+0.50