IvyArcIvyArc
9

Stily

6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden hurdler/chaser who was pulled up in handicap chase at Limerick in May after 6 months off. Back over hurdles and not discounted on his 2 placed efforts in this sphere last summer, especially with a good-value conditional on board.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA84 @ Limerick 29/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 84 · 2m3f50y Goo 152 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 84 par29/0584OR 84BHA87 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 87 · 2m7f120y Goo 155 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 87 parBHA86 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 86 · 2m1f89y Gd 145 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 86 par22/0786OR 86BHA86 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 86 · 2m5f155y Yie 154 · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 86 parBHA86 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 86 · 2m160y Goo 142 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 86 par8/0986OR 86C5 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 154 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 86 parBHA86 @ Galway 07/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 86 · 2m2f54y Yie 142 · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 86 par7/1086OR 86BHA85 @ Thurles 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 85 · 2m5f80y Goo 153 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 85 parBHA84 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 84 · 2m2f65y Yie 143 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 84 par20/1184OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-21LimerickBHA850
2025-11-20ThurlesBHA842nd2nd0
2025-10-30ThurlesBHA853rd3rd0
2025-10-07GalwayBHA863rd3rd0
2025-09-26Listowel?6th6th0
2025-09-08GalwayBHA865th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/055/087/1020/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20252nd8/158%92%+0.34
03/07/20256th16/116%67%+0.51
22/07/20253rd17/255%86%+0.30
05/08/20258th15/261%53%-0.07
08/09/20255th11/142%79%+0.37
26/09/20256th10/147%69%+0.21
07/10/20253rd9/276%75%-0.01
30/10/20253rd17/255%88%+0.33
20/11/20252nd6/168%93%+0.24