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15

Chesterbaylad

5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 74

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f

#11

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Turned in best effort in over a year when 5½ lengths second of 19 to Whispering Willow in 2m handicap at Punchestown in May. Not in same form at Kilbeggan last 2 outings but probably overdid things in front last time. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA89 @ Downpatrick 25/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 2m1f165y Gd 152 · below its mark25/08/2025 · OR 89 par25/0889OR 89BHA86 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 86 · 2m Yie 153 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 86 parBHA80 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 80 · 1m7f169y Yie 148 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 80 par20/1180OR 80BHA78 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 78 · 2m1f53y Yie 146 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 78 parBHA77 @ Gowran Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 77 · 2m Hvy 145 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 77 par22/0177OR 77BHA75 @ Down Royal 04/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 75 · 2m1f88y Gd 143 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 75 parBHA74 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 74 · 2m Goo 142 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 74 par13/0574OR 74BHA76 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 76 · 1m7f150y Goo 144 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 76 parBHA75 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 75 · 2m2f160y Goo 146 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 75 par10/0775OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA754th4th0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA767th7th0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA742nd2nd0
2026-05-04Down RoyalBHA7517th17th0
2026-01-22Gowran ParkBHA7712th12th0
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA789th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0826/1213/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20259th50/10%0%0.00
11/10/20258th40/10%53%+0.53
20/11/202513th25/10%25%+0.25
26/12/20259th20/10%58%+0.58
22/01/202612th12/137%21%-0.15
04/05/202617th15/261%16%-0.45
13/05/20262nd20/10%94%+0.94
31/05/20267th17/255%50%-0.05
10/07/20264th9/153%80%+0.27