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12

Tasmanian Girl

6yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 79

Cork · Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f

#17

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Caused a shock when landing a handicap at Thurles in March 2025 for Aengus King but hasn't threatened to add to that success, including when well backed on debut for current connections last time. Interesting if market speaks in her favour again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA89 @ Downpatrick 09/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 89 · 2m1f165y Gd 148 · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 89 par9/0589OR 89C8 @ Wexford 28/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 89 · 2m1f Goo 150 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 89 parBHA40 @ Limerick 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 40 par21/0640OR 40BHA88 @ Cork 11/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 88 · 2m190y Goo 156 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 88 parBHA87 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 87 · 2m1f20y Goo 155 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 87 par4/0887OR 87BHA86 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 86 · 2m80y Gd 142 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 86 parBHA84 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 84 · 2m1f40y Gd 150 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 84 par27/0884OR 84C8 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 34 · 1m4f46y Gd 130 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 34 parBHA80 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 2m150y Gd 152 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 80 par23/0780OR 80projClass-projected finish: 17th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23WexfordBHA809th9th0
2026-05-27Wexford?0
2026-05-11Roscommon?8th8th0
2025-08-27BellewstownBHA8414th14th0
2025-08-15TramoreBHA866th6th0
2025-08-04CorkBHA875th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0511/0727/0823/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 18
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20257th25/10%40%+0.40
28/05/20255th80/10%20%+0.20
21/06/20256th33/10%67%+0.67
11/07/20257th40/10%63%+0.63
04/08/20255th11/142%75%+0.33
15/08/20256th11/142%44%+0.02
27/08/202514th18/15%7%+0.02
11/05/20268th125/10%36%+0.36
23/07/20269th9/276%11%-0.65