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11

Adifferentballowax

4yo Gelding · 11-9

Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f

#18

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't offered much in a couple of bumpers either side of a considerate hurdling debut. Handicaps over further may prove more his bag.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR - · 2m132y Yie 16428/04C?C8 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR - · 2m Yie 16028/05C8C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16416/07C?projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Killarney?9th9th0
2026-05-28Limerick?9th9th0
2026-04-28Punchestown?15th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0428/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 21
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/202615th40/10%22%+0.22
28/05/20269th50/10%53%+0.53
16/07/20269th28/10%43%+0.43