13

Devine Genius

4yo Gelding · 11-9

Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f

#20

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regressive maiden on the Flat. Plenty to prove sent hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 21/04/2024 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sft 13321/04C8C8 @ Leopardstown 17/05/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f52y Gd 133C8 @ Tipperary 29/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f20y Sft 13029/05C8C8 @ Down Royal 19/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 75 · 7f25y Gd 133 · below its mark19/07/2024 · OR 75 parC8 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m4f46y Gd 134 · below its mark19/08/2025 · OR 72 par19/08C8OR 72BHA71 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m3f15y Hvy 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 71 parBHA70 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m4f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par26/0670OR 70BHA69 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m4f Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 69 parBHA64 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m6f80y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 64 par15/0764OR 64projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA6410th8th+2
2026-07-07TramoreBHA6910th9th+1
2026-06-26CurraghBHA7013th12th+1
2025-09-22ListowelBHA7111th10th+1
2025-08-19Roscommon?6th6th0
2024-07-19Down Royal?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0419/0726/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 21
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength19%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/202411th7/163%0%-0.63
17/05/20248th28/10%22%+0.22
29/05/20243rd12/137%75%+0.38
19/07/20246th7/163%17%-0.46
19/08/20256th11/142%29%-0.14
22/09/202511th25/10%17%+0.17
26/06/202613th100/10%8%+0.08
07/07/202610th150/10%10%+0.10
15/07/202610th150/10%10%+0.10