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5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 102

Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f

#13

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-held fourth in much stronger race at Ballinrobe in May. Confirmed that improvement when ½-length second on handicap debut there (17f) last time. Interesting returning to an ordinary maiden with more severe headgear fitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f130y Yie 13511/09C8C8 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f15y Hvy 141BHA56 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 56 · 1m4f77y Sft 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 56 par2/1056OR 56C8 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR - · 2m11y Goo 153C8 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 16115/12C8C0 @ Ballinrobe 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m2f72y Goo 156C8 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 105 · 2m2f185y Gd 166 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 105 par14/06C8OR 105BHA53 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m4f65y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA100 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 100 · 2m1f89y Gd 146 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 100 par21/07100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21BallinrobeBHA1002nd4th−2
2026-07-11LimerickBHA539th6th+3
2026-06-14Downpatrick?6th6th0
2026-05-25Ballinrobe?4th4th0
2025-12-15Naas?19th19th0
2025-11-27Thurles?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0927/1114/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 21
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20259th150/10%27%+0.27
22/09/202510th400/10%18%+0.18
02/10/20257th50/10%33%+0.33
27/11/202512th80/10%31%+0.31
15/12/202519th200/10%5%+0.05
25/05/20264th300/10%57%+0.57
14/06/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
11/07/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
21/07/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63