6

Livio

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Picked up for €260,000 following Grade 3 bumper win on debut in France in 2024. Encouraging start over hurdles after 20 months off when third of 12 in maiden at Killarney (2½m) in May. Some mitigation for his subsequent flop at Punchestown and looks worth another chance following 10-week break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move3
Strength3%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Lyon-Parilly 29/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS29/09C1C8 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m4f50y Goo 16611/05C8C8 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 24 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1666/06C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Punchestown?11th11th0
2026-05-11Killarney?3rd3rd0
2024-09-29Lyon-Parilly?1st-8th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0911/056/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 21
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength25%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20241st5/174%100%+0.26
11/05/20263rd5/287%82%-0.05
06/06/202611th6/492%57%-0.36