16
Saporetti
4yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 103
Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Amiens | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Angers | ? | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 21
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 85% | -0.01 |