IvyArcIvyArc
17

Voice Of Northeast

4yo Gelding · 11-9

Cork · Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle · 2m 2f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat maiden. Best recent effort came when fourth in big-field 1½m Leopardstown handicap in May. Ran poorly since and stamina to prove now sent hurdling in usual tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength86%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 16/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/04C8C7 @ Ballinrobe 09/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 1m1f138y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 70 parBHA67 @ Roscommon 19/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 67 · 1m4f17y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/05/2025 · OR 67 par19/0567OR 67BHA63 @ Cork 13/06/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 63 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 63 parBHA59 @ Limerick 12/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 59 · 7f200y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 59 par12/0759OR 59BHA53 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 53 parBHA50 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 50 · 1m4f180y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 50 par15/0550OR 50BHA50 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m6f109y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 50 parBHA50 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 50 · 1m3f103y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 50 par15/0750OR 50projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA5012th8th+3
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA506th2nd+3
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA504th0th+3
2025-11-26DundalkBHA5312th9th+3
2025-07-12LimerickBHA5912th10th+2
2025-06-13CorkBHA6314th12th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0413/0615/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 21
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20253rd7/163%80%+0.17
09/05/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
19/05/20258th50/10%50%+0.50
13/06/202514th50/10%19%+0.19
12/07/202512th22/10%0%0.00
26/11/202512th50/10%15%+0.15
15/05/20264th33/10%83%+0.83
02/07/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
15/07/202612th25/10%21%+0.21