8
Calzaghi
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102
Cork · Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | BHA76 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Naas | BHA71 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 20
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 20. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 29/03/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 59% | +0.11 |
| 24/04/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 41% | +0.25 |