5
Certamen
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 103
Cork · Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f
#18
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-29 | Punchestown | ? | 19th | 19th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 20
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/04/2025 | 19th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/09/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 04/05/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 250/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |