11
Champagne Dawn
9yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 101
Cork · Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | BHA103 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | BHA106 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Galway | BHA109 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Cork | BHA111 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Killarney | BHA112 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-09-18 | Tramore | BHA116 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 20
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 19th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2023 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 30/08/2023 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 11/09/2023 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/08/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/08/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 04/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/09/2025 | 18th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 14/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |