10
Folly Beach
8yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 102
Cork · Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | BHA57 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA59 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA57 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Galway | BHA105 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 20
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 17/07/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 30/07/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 37% | +0.21 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 54% | +0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |