3
Moontown
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |