5
Ava's Uncle Billy
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength75%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 15/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |