4
Henry's Hope
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |