New Matthew
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 30/11/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |