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7

Salty Ryan

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 57

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 08/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS8/07C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 28/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 52 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2025 · OR 52 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 01/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 53 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 53 par1/09C6OR 53C6 @ Finger Lakes 29/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 55 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m 121 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 57 par21/10C9OR 57C6 @ Finger Lakes 19/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 62 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 01/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 60 par1/06C6OR 60C6 @ Finger Lakes 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 55 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 55 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m70y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 58 par13/07C5OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3
2026-06-22Finger Lakes?1st-1th+2
2026-06-01Finger Lakes?10th8th+2
2025-11-19Finger Lakes?2nd0th+2
2025-10-21Finger Lakes?3rd4th−1
2025-09-29Finger Lakes?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0729/091/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/07/20254th9/276%50%-0.26
28/07/20253rd15/261%71%+0.11
01/09/20256th9/488%17%-0.71
29/09/20256th7/163%17%-0.46
21/10/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
19/11/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
01/06/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
22/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
13/07/20266th20/10%17%+0.17