3
Only La Duss
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 37
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |