Peruvian Princess

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 46

Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-08	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-10	Finger Lakes	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2025-11-25	Finger Lakes	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2025-11-04	Finger Lakes	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 10

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength64%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/11/2025	4th	14/1	26%	63%	+0.36
25/11/2025	7th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
10/06/2026	4th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13
08/07/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	89%	+0.01