2
Ari's Magic
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 26/05/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 30/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |