5
John's In Charge
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |