7
Lord King
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 84
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/10
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |