8
Nostalgia's Smile
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-08-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |