Thetribehasspoken
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Sunland Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-01-12 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |