4
Boston Bay
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 12/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |