2
Charity First
5yo Mare · 8-5 · OR 46
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 21/06/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |