3
Video Evidence
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 64
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |