4
Ernie's Martini
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/12/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |