5
Kiddie Holiday
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |