3
Where Is Essa
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |